Ekene Ngwu: 5 factors needed to win elections in South-east Nigeria (Y! Politico)

by Ekene Ngwu

Ekene_Ngwu

An electoral candidate with reasonable economic power has better chances, as sponsors and other stakeholders are more likely to take the person seriously, as finance of preliminary consultations and campaign will not be a problem.

Five key factors to win an election in southeast Nigeria include credibility, stakeholders’ endorsement, incumbent governor’s support, economic power and candidate’s political party.

These factors obviously might suffice in other regions, but Nigeria is a complex country where no one can claim that ‘one size fits all’. For instance, while a candidate’s religion could be a factor in Northern Nigeria, it may not be considered in some other zones.

The ideas propounded in this article are based on recent observations of elections in the five southeastern states, especially within the past 15 years. Political parties’ primary elections as well as the main elections are considered to be of equal importance with regards to these 5 key electoral factors. Be it gubernatorial, assembly, or local government elections, the following elements, in the order below, will be considered.

CREDIBILITY
Surprising as it may sound, the first factor party stakeholders, delegates and the voting populace will consider is credibility which can be represented by the success, achievements and track records of a candidate. This is key especially for a gubernatorial candidate who will need a lot of endorsements by several groups ranging from traditional rulers, party executives, youth groups, professional associations, the press, the clergy, the immediate community and constituency.

For example, Dr Chinwoke Mbadinuju of Anambra, Dr Chimaroke Nnamani of Enugu, Dr Sam Egwu of Ebonyi, Dr Orji Uzor Kalu of Abia and Arch Achike Udenwa of Imo state, who were governors of the southeastern states from 1999 to 2007 where acclaimed professionals in their fields and were perceived to be highly regarded at the time they were running for elections. Dr Nnamani had just returned from America and was perceived to be a credible medical doctor who had seen and learnt how things are done in more developed parts of the world. That integrity among other things contributed to his acceptance and subsequent electoral victory in Enugu State. Orji Uzor Kalu was a successful businessman before contesting for Abia’s top job, and that credibility as a good manager favoured him.

STAKEHOLDERS’ ENDORSEMENT
Stakeholders in this case are not just party stakeholders or the most influential members of the society, such as traditional rulers, government officials, press and clerics; they also include the majority of voters, women and youth groups, especially the opinion leaders and the numerous grassroots’ politicians who influence the voting patterns of the rural and old people in their respective villages and clans. This means that a candidate should consult widely and very early before elections, convincing and continuously interacting with all stakeholders in a very diplomatic and loyal manner without showing any signs of arrogance or nonchalance to anyone.
A successful relationship built with various grassroots groups and influential individuals is what is usually referred to as a candidate’s political structure.

The major stakeholders are usually elected officials and political appointees in the state, who are highly regarded in their constituencies. These also include Local Government chairmen, councilors and local ward chairmen, and more often than not, will introduce a candidate to grassroots politicians who are usually party delegates during primary elections. These local heavy weights will also convince their immediate villages and neighbourhoods on which candidate to vote for. Some grassroots politicians are not necessarily members of any political party, but are local opinion leaders and opinion formers who will campaign vigorously for the candidate that suits them. Some of them are readily available to be recruited by the candidate or campaign organization that first contacts them.

These are the people a ‘down-to-earth’ candidate is likely to meet in ‘bush meat and palm wine’ joints, and the ability to interact with them at their level, while speaking the local dialect, can determine election outcomes. The online community of youths and the diaspora are also relevant stakeholders that should be engaged with. A good online presence on social media and other web platforms will also lead to far reaching endorsements that are unquantifiable and largely underrated.

Being endorsed by major stakeholders means that when state party leaders meet to discuss about suitable candidates, a good number of people speaking for a particular candidate determines if he will be favoured to get the party ticket or not. These major stakeholders have the power to persuade a governor, party delegates (grassroots politicians) and everyone else on who to vote for during party primaries and general elections.

INCUMBENT GOVERNOR’S SUPPORT
In some cases, the support of the incumbent or outgoing governor, who is the leader of the party in the state, is paramount, but that support may be dependent on the first two factors above. An outgoing governor will most likely support a credible individual who can easily be supported or endorsed by party stakeholders to ensure that the opposition party does not win. The same goes for candidates contesting for other positions. Most recently, the incumbent governor in a southeast state leads his party’s campaign and controls the entire party structure. This means that the person who will win the party primaries is hugely dependent on the governor’s support, and has a chance to win the main elections if the other factors are favourable. Many of the current governors had support of the outgoing governors.

However, Imo state where Rochas Okorocha defeated Ikedi Ohakim, a sitting governor, though by a small margin, is an exception in which the victor had a combination of all the other four important factors in abundance. Rochas has been a popular nationwide philanthropist who was credible, loved, endorsed, rich and belonged to the most favourable political party at the time; APGA. Most favourable, because APGA is referred to as ‘party Ndigbo’ and was understood to have been founded by the great man, late Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, the most revered Igbo man who ever lived, who was still alive at the time of that election. At that time, Ojukwu’s support as well as other factors favourable to Rochas was enough to overrule the factor of ‘incumbent governor’s support’.

ECONOMIC POWER
If it is a gubernatorial election, it is either a candidate is rich enough to finance the campaign, or there are one or more benefactors. With other elections, support of the current governor may suffice, as the governor might bankroll the party’s campaign. An electoral candidate with reasonable economic power has better chances, as sponsors and other stakeholders are more likely to take the person seriously, as finance of preliminary consultations and campaign will not be a problem.

POLITICAL PARTY
There are a number of reasons why a candidate’s political party will matter. In southeast Nigeria, this factor does not always trump the other factors and that’s the reason I’ve placed it at number five. It is the last, but not always the least.

Most importantly, belonging to the same party with the state governor provides a better chance for a candidate to win, especially if the Governor is above average, or very good. An example is Abia state where Orji Uzor Kalu created a new party, PPA and Theordore Orji with his support, went on to win the gubernatorial elections on that platform. Another example is Enugu State, where all the elected officials are members of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, largely because of the goodwill and good works of His Excellency, Barr Sullivan Chime.
Secondly, membership of APGA, the party founded by Ojukwu and valued as a party owned by the Igbo tribe, was the major factor why Peter Obi and Rochas Okorocha won governorship elections in their states.

However, membership of a party frowned at in south-east Nigeria will drastically reduce a candidate’s electoral value. For instance, there was no way Anambra people were going to vote in APC’s Ngige instead of APGA’s Obiano, when the strong perception is that APC is owned by Bola Tinubu and Muhammadu Buhari, a merger of a few other parties perceived to be regional. It would have been considered as turning their backs on the unanimous leader of the Igbo tribe, Ojukwu, who recently died before the election. It would have sounded like colonization. Sentimental as this may sound, it is the reality.

These 5 factors may not be entirely correct or the only major considerations; there definitely are other factors. Unimportant as it may sound, being a Catholic or Anglican in a state like Anambra also provides a political edge.

In conclusion, these factors mentioned above, will favour any candidate greatly in order to win an election in Nigeria’s southeast geo-political zone.

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Ekene Ngwu is a digital media & public relations consultant and a documentary producer. He studied at the University of Nigeria Nsukka; Pan Atlantic University, Lagos; New York Film Academy, USA and Newcastle University, United Kingdom. He has been head of research & reporter at Supersport TV and a Marketing Communications Consultant in United Kingdom.He tweets from @KenisCruise

 

Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.

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