by Meje Apamiran

Ekiti people are okay with their choice. Let them be the ones to curse themselves, your prejudice is not superior to their resolve. This election was won landslide by PDP, subtract the errors. PDP still won. . 

The announcement by the Independent National Electoral Commission on Saturday’s concluded, conclusive and if you may please free-and-fair Ekiti Gubernatorial elections that produced populist Mr. Peter Ayodele Fayose of the PDP in a clear triumph over the preen, idealist incumbent and “PhD in War and Strategic Studies” wielding Governor Fayemi of the APC was unanticipated and wished away by most discerning analysts and road side newsstand commentators on our physical and virtual arenas of discourse. While the Writer accurately predicted this outcome there was still a major shortfall in predicting that the Incumbent should have won or be gifted his own immediate constituency ordinarily, these piece probes into the probable reasons behind this plot and the curious case of some of the acts involved.

Keeping up with the historical voting patterns of the Ekitis and till recently neighboring Ondos, you will spot a trend that Governors of these states are never returned to office, it appears there is an unwritten creed for the politicians especially Guber position seekers that you do not spend more than a single term in office so much so that most candidates including all who contested in the 2014 race, now or at a time before made a solemn promise in their manifesto not to spend beyond a Single term in office. Not only after discussing with several indigenes of the state did I get to understand that this isn’t a theoretical attempt to rationalize a mere coincidence but a true depiction of the mindset, the coloration of their people wrapped up in several axioms often professed by the people. Regardless of whatever successes that may have been achieved by the incumbent, it was another failure in the part of the campaign team of the sitting Governor to have centered their campaign on messages like 4+4, Ko duro soke (the Olamide theme) which is contrary to the intrinsic expectations of the people of Ekiti. I will discuss the campaign communications later lest I digress.

Hard to imagine for most idealists is why Ekiti decided on Mr. Peter Ayodele Fayose of the PDP over Dr. John Kayode Fayemi of the APC, even more difficult to comprehend for the Writer is the intellectual superiority and subsequent detachment of these persons to the ordinary truth that democracy is famously defined as the Government of the People + by the people + for the people = Ayo Fayose!  Let me introduce to you Mr. Fayose (Ore mekunu; Friend of the masses), an epic crowd favorite who dines and rides with the Okada rides – his core.

Fayose never completed his term in office, he was rejected by the elites, usurped by General Obasanjo’s impeachment pattern. He was famous for being disrespectful to the elders (Agbayas in his words) for rightful reasons maybe even famously calling OBJ the Father of Bastards at Former Osun State Governor, Oyinlola’s thanksgiving service years ago. With this kind of unbridled tongue it wasn’t difficult to pitch his people against him because of a culture that extols full regard for Elders over Money, Status and even Correctness. Fayose was an Amateur in Politics at this notwithstanding being a one-time Governor and then approached Gov. Mimiko of Ondo State to be mentored by him, Mimiko himself also a deep grassroots man who helped to refine Fayose and patched up his relationships with some of the Elders in Ekiti State. What most overnight analysts fail to ignore was the Fayose factor was responsible for the ousting of the Incumbent Governor Segun Oni at the Ekiti Elections in 2007, a more grounded Ayo Fayose had emerged and was promised the Senatorial Seat among others by the then ACN which was reneged upon by the Party’s leaders a decision which prompted him to ditch the party for the Labour Party in that contest which he lost to the frenzy surrounding the ACN in the Southwest at this time.  Fayose was never missing in action, matter of fact he never left to enjoy his wealth (or loot) in Abuja or his home base of Ibadan but stuck in to entrench his support in the state by dwelling with them. Fayose’s achievement as a Governor cannot be discounted going by the manner in which some seek to steal the shine from his victory. He was responsible for Major Infrastructural and Social Projects driven by Local Entrepreneurs and Contractors as well as Populist Policies like Reduction in Cost of Education, not banning Okada Riders at this time. Also he raised the states IGR through viable investments like Nanet Suites in Abuja without a tax burden to his people.

On the other hand Fayemi was a fine man, but Democracy is imperfect! He like Fayose seemed to have developed Ekiti State better than Governor Segun Oni and seemed to have achieved much in the area of Infrastructure and raising the profile of the State through aggressive Multilateral relations and PR Campaigns championed by the rebranding of the state. However I hold that his overhyped communications team was his major failing including his intellectually savvy but apolitical appointees. On his communications team they knew nothing about NeuroLinguistic programming  He Fayemi needs to mirror the poor, bring them to his gates at least, but his expert roundtable was myopic. Fayose got solidarity votes from his low down associations.  I believe the APC lost this elections for obvious reasons to them, they had rejected in a Newspaper Cover page the outcomes of the Ekiti Polls only two days before the people decided. The writers suspicions on the detachment of Bola Ahmed Tinubu from the JKF returning idea based on previous issues which Micheal Opeyemi Bamidele, an obvious BAT loyalist was enmeshed in from the very beginning. We recall that he was persuaded to endorse the candidacy of Governor Fashola and Fayemi alike. My suspicions were confirmed by some APC foot soldiers’ allegation of his being privy to the fact that BAT will not have JKF back but for his Party’s sake due to some Vice Presidential candidacy jostling. However it wouldn’t have made much difference if BAT intervened as the people of Ekiti rejected an APC themed government overshadowed by Urban Development without considerations for the lowly and down trodden, a tax and levy based Internal Generated Revenue a la LASG, a feat which the APC could get away with in Lagos but not Ekiti due to the low economic profile of the latter. Fayemi however may turn out to be another victory PDP will be willing to claim over APC based on Political Currents and the level of information available to the writer on the PDP’s current mindset.

Finally Opeyemi Bamidele, a much revered fellow who has also been in touch with his base since his sojourn from Lagos to Ekiti-Abuja politics I dare say is the highest gainer from the Ekiti 2014 Election Micheal Opeyemi Bamidele will most definitely will have lost his House of Representatives seat in 2015 should Fayemi or the APC win the elections. He is actually more popular now with the Ekiti electorates and could keep his MHR seat, Not only will MOB retain his MHR seat, he a better offer awaits him from Fayose for helping to weaken the incumbent. The writer bets that Senate beckons on him. MOB has raised his stake in the Ekiti political sphere, he’s more eligible in 2018 should he make right moves just like Fayose dealt after coming third place in 2010.

Finally, Politics is a game. There are general rules; electoral and fundamental like sanctity of life and others. Fayose outgamed Fayemi, Simple! It will be victim’s mentality to blame others for another politicians defeat at the polls especially when they are fairly evenly matched. APC’s loss in Ekiti couldn’t have been at a better time than now, to help them reconcile media propaganda with off the air realities as APC is not that popular as a party, trust me. Twitter doesn’t win elections not even more popular Facebook, It appears to the writer that APC’s twitter hirelings may not be as smart as they are perceived. They failed to obtain demographic data on active Social Media usage in Ekiti and were too elitist to ignore the power of 2Go Chats and simple SMS based applications.

For those who prefer to bicker and downplay their party’s loss at the polls over the “Iresi issue”, the writer believes that incentives are the bedrock of gaming and thinks that the spend on sharing Bags of Rice is much more saner than on a no ROI Influencer outreach programme centered around politwitters and idyllic bloggers. This is a reflection of poor thinking and a failed Strategy as apparent to all.

Ekiti people are okay with their choice. Let them be the ones to curse themselves, your prejudice is not superior to their resolve. This election was won landslide by PDP, subtract the errors. PDP still won. Is Osun Ripe? Will APC also lose JKF to PDP? Watch out for this series.

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Op-ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Y!/YNaija.

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